FX chairman of content material and productions John Landgraf, who coined the phrase “peak TV” again in 2015, believes the business has certainly peaked.
In 2022, Tv output elevated to 599 scripted sequence—probably the most of all time, in line with FX’s annual tally. And it’s now not sustainable.
“I feel we have now a powerful indication that we’re going to begin to see a decline to start with of 2023,” Landgraf stated throughout his annual government session on the 2023 Winter Tv Critics Affiliation Press Tour in Pasadena, Calif.
Final 12 months noticed a 7% year-over-year improve in scripted originals, however FX’s analysis discovered the variety of new sequence decreased within the second half of the 12 months, dropping by 2%.
“In August [Summer 2022 TCA Press Tour], I stated it could be the 2020s you’ll discover the market peak of scripted sequence TV sequence, and that’s nonetheless my wager whereas noting with humility that I’ve been incorrect on this prediction twice earlier than,” Landgraf stated.
For an instance of the downward pattern, look no additional than FX’s programming.
In 2022, FX had 19 returning packages and 6 one-off sequence. In 2023, FX will broadcast 23 sequence in complete.
Regardless of having fewer sequence, it’s a quality-over-quantity story for FX. The corporate’s 2023 lineup contains Season 2 of The Bear, Season 3 of Reservation Canine and the restricted sequence Shogun, which can be one among FX’s biggest-scale sequence but.
FX content material is secure… for now
The community (and its content material on Hulu) had one among its finest years in 2022, with Welcome to Wrexham changing into the most-watched unscripted sequence in FX historical past, and the highly-acclaimed first season of The Bear drawing 140,000 concurrent streams of its eight episodes the morning after its launch.
However Landgraf expects the business to expertise a “narrowing” of the streaming world, serving to clarify why streaming providers like HBO Max have been yanking licensed and older content material.
FX at the moment doesn’t have “particular plans” to make any comparable strikes. Nonetheless, Landgraf stated the corporate “wouldn’t rule something out,” pointing to the event of latest applied sciences which have upended how networks create and distribute packages.
“The web removes constraints that used to exist on quantity,” stated Landgraf, including, “You had a restricted quantity of shelf house. It’s figuring it out once more. You simply can’t take this infinite sum of money and dump it on one thing. It will get stale.”
Media corporations are additionally experiencing difficulties with person interfaces and discoverability whereas juggling hundreds of items of content material.
“I feel the business as an entire goes by this reckoning and realizing you’ll be able to’t simplify as a lot… we’re on this interval of radical transformation,” Landgraf stated.
Shifting advertising and marketing budgets
Because the streaming business continues to evolve, the way in which FX and Landgraf market new sequence has shifted as nicely.
“You clearly can’t afford to make 599 tv exhibits and market all of them like The Bear or Home of the Dragon,” he stated. “Our complete advertising and marketing finances has modified.”
Beforehand, FX would’ve put 90% of its finances into the premiere of a present, however now lower than 50% is concentrated on the primary episode, with Landgraf saying “each side” of the corporate’s advertising and marketing plans needed to be restructured.
An emphasis on variety
Since scripted sequence might decline in 2023, Landgraf worries that the narrowing of the window might negatively influence numerous voices and storytelling as corporations might program for the widest out there viewers.
“For those who’re simply going for the largest meat of the viewers, the bulk, you are inclined to program to white males,” he stated, calling scripted packages that enchantment to males a boon.
“I’d like to go away FX and I’d like to go away this business with [diversity] being regular enterprise,” he stated.
Landgraf known as the previous few years of peak TV “a extremely constructive profit” relating to numerous storytelling.
“Lots of new folks obtained alternatives within the business. So then you definately fear when there’s a narrowing course of, who loses alternative,” Landgraf stated. “Is it the final individual that obtained a chance, and does that not favor numerous voices?”
The FX chairman stated shops should resolve “purposefully” to talk to different demographics and praised the DEI work achieved at Disney, FX’s mum or dad firm.
“[Disney] is doing that in all places throughout its enterprise,” he stated. “It’s attempting to achieve everybody in America.”
