Advert spend is again, due to its normal hero: digital promoting.
US media promoting gross sales surged 4.4% in Q2 after two weak quarters, beating June expectations of three.6%. Full-year spend for 2023 is predicted to extend by 5.2%, in accordance with a Magna forecast launched Monday.
Magna additionally revised the 2024 advert spend forecast upward from 5% to five.6%. That determine will increase to eight% when taking occasions just like the Olympics and political campaigns into consideration.
Q2 2023 benefited from simpler comps than current quarters. Q2 2022 advert revenues grew at a extra measured tempo than This autumn 2021 or Q1 2022, which noticed dramatic post-COVID spikes in advert spend.
The spring of hope, the winter of despair
However Q2 was a story of two media sorts. A brightening US financial outlook within the second quarter contributed to elevated spending in digital, which rose 8.7% YOY. However conventional media firms, together with linear TV, print, radio and cinema, noticed advert spend plummet by 4.1% YOY.
“We see a divergence between digital media which might be recovering and conventional media that aren’t recovering,” mentioned Vincent Letang, EVP of world market intelligence at Magna. “Digital development isn’t sufficient to offset the erosion of revenues derived from legacy codecs.”
Take out-of-home, the one conventional format that carried out nicely this quarter, rising 2.5%. Magna’s out of-home class combines static and digital out-of-home (DOOH) advert revenues, which means that the class’s development occurred on the again of DOOH’s 9% development.
TV spend paints a grimmer image. Linear TV scores and views have been free-falling for years, and solely pricing inflation saved revenues secure. However now, CPM prices are rising by low single digits as a substitute of by double digits, Letang mentioned. And the “lack of recent scripted programming” ensuing from the writers and actors strike might solely additional erode scores.
Nonlinear TV (comprising CTV, AVOD and FAST) grew 7% within the first half of 2023, however that development isn’t sufficient to offset linear TV’s ongoing losses.
Lengthy-term stability apart, in 2024, linear TV will get a shot within the arm as a result of “native TV stays the number-one vacation spot” for political spending and the Paris Summer time Olympics will carry tons of of hundreds of thousands of advert {dollars} to nationwide TV, Letang mentioned.
Strolling the primrose path
On the digital promoting entrance, sturdy performers embody search, social, retail media and what Magna calls short-form digital video (primarily YouTube and Twitch, in addition to outstream video). Search has grown 6% to $94.6 billion in 2023 and is forecast to develop 7% to $100.8 billion in 2024.
Social spend grew by practically 12% in Q2, rebounding after having “a really unhealthy 12 months” in 2022, Letang mentioned, brought on by Apple’s AppTrackingTransparency adjustments. Final 12 months additionally introduced the fast rise of vertical short-form movies, which initially posed a problem for advertisers. Though shoppers liked “snacking” on these movies, it took time for advertisers to fill these new advert spots with video advertisements.
“It takes time for advert codecs to regulate and be monetized in addition to the earlier [types],” Letang mentioned. Now that the trade has grappled with and “digested” these shifts, monetization is bettering.
Retail media development has soared 22% in 2023, reaching $35.6 billion in advert spend, and is projected to develop 19% to $42.2 billion in 2024. The channel can be serving to its buddies, “fueling digital development” in social commerce, digital and show.
What’s extra, retail media isn’t “cannibalizing different media codecs for essentially the most half,” Letang mentioned. As a substitute, CPGs which have “big” commerce advertising and marketing agreements with retailers are actually redirecting some cash into digital media by means of retail media networks.
Comeback children
Inflation battered CPG firms in 2022, forcing them to lift their shopper costs to cowl their very own prices. However after final 12 months’s dip in advert spend, the class confirmed shocking resilience in Q2, with private care advert spend up 16% and meals and beverage up 12% YOY. Pharma advert spend elevated 12%, retail grew 9% and restaurant rose 8% YOY, whereas tech fell 3% and finance decreased 8% in advert spending.
Whereas the automotive sector’s advert spend grew 3%, the comparatively paltry determine fell beneath the Q2 common of 4.4%. “It’s underwhelming,” Letang mentioned, provided that automobile gross sales have been rising by 15% nearly each month.
Nonetheless, buoyant shopper spend on “big-ticket objects” like automobiles and journey is an effective signal for advertisers. “Automotive and journey are two classes that you’d anticipate to decelerate when there’s anxiousness concerning the financial system,” Letang mentioned. “Folks determined, regardless of all the things, to not cancel their trip plans in ’23.”
